Two Years of Base DEX Swaps:
$1.9 Billion Left on the Table
10.6M transactions across Uniswap V3, Aerodrome, PancakeSwap, and Uniswap V4. The full picture of TWAP execution at the ecosystem level.
We scanned 10,654,112 raw on-chain transactions across four DEXes on Base, covering 79 sampled days from January 2024 through March 2026. After filtering bots, MEV sandwiches, algorithmic arbitrage, and high-frequency addresses, 662,885 clean human swaps remained. We simulated 114,921 TWAP scenarios across five order sizes and every DEX.
TWAP outperformed an instant swap in 100% of simulations. The projected recoverable value across the full two-year period: $1.9 billion.
Results — Savings by order size
| Order Size | Instant Output | TWAP Output | Improvement | Net Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5,000 | $4,753 | $4,932 | +3.76% (+$179) | $164 |
| $10,000 | $9,064 | $9,760 | +7.67% (+$696) | $666 |
| $25,000 | $19,875 | $23,652 | +19.0% (+$3,778) | $3,703 |
| $50,000 | $32,992 | $45,111 | +36.7% (+$12,120) | $11,970 |
| $100,000 | $49,235 | $83,358 | +69.3% (+$34,124) | $33,824 |
Median values, 4h TWAP, 10 slices, 30 bps fee deducted for net gain.
The Aerodrome Paradox
Aerodrome generates 54.5% of total estimated savings despite only 25.2% of clean swap volume. Whale-scale WETH/wstETH and WETH/cbBTC trades are severely oversized relative to pool depth:
| DEX | Est. Savings (79 days) | Savings Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Aerodrome | $140.5M | 28.6% |
| Uniswap V3 | $103.8M | 8.1% |
| PancakeSwap | $9.8M | 9.9% |
| Uniswap V4 | $3.4M | 5.2% |
Two-year projection
Volume-weighted projection from the 79-day observed dataset against $314.8B verified Base DEX volume (DefiLlama):
| Metric | 79-Day Observed | 2-Year Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Clean swap volume | $1.95B | $22.1B |
| Clean swaps | 662,885 | 7.49M |
| Recoverable savings | $257.9M | $1.9B |
| Avg daily savings | $3.26M | $3.55M |
Top whale misses
The five largest individual misses in the 79-day sample. Eight of the top ten occurred on Aerodrome, all involving wstETH or cbBTC pairs.
| # | Date | Pool | Order | Est. Saving |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 1, 2025 | Aero WETH/wstETH | $488K | $330K |
| 2 | Nov 10, 2024 | Aero WETH/wstETH | $481K | $325K |
| 3 | Dec 1, 2025 | Aero WETH/wstETH | $480K | $325K |
| 4 | Jun 17, 2025 | Aero WETH/wstETH | $475K | $321K |
| 5 | Jan 15, 2026 | Aero USDC/eUSD | $473K | $320K |
Caveats
- AMM formula is V2 constant-product — slightly overstates impact vs real V3/V4 concentrated liquidity
- Aerodrome savings are exact (volatile xy=k pools); V3/V4/PancakeSwap savings use TVL-based depth adjustment (0.233×)
- Projection uses DefiLlama volume-weighted extrapolation (11.30×) anchored to $314.8B verified volume
- Pool depth explains 82% of TWAP improvement variance (R²=0.816) — lower than single-token reports due to cross-DEX variance